The Beginning of the End: Why the Warriors’ Dynasty Will Expire

The Beginning of the End: Why the Warriors’ Dynasty Will Expire

August 30th, 2018

When you look at history books, we glorify dynasties and dominant empires from the Mongol Empire to the Ottomans and in the sports world, the Golden State Warriors are not any different. The Golden State Warriors have been one of the greatest NBA dynasties that we have ever seen. The Warriors have struck fear in players, coaches, owners and GMs around the league and their dominance has been remarkable. Winning three NBA championships in the past four years is certainly an accomplishment but the Warriors elite days are numbered and here is why.

Reason #1: Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is a trandscent talent and one of the greats of not only his generation but of all time. Even though his move to San Francisco is still controversial and ridiculed today, there is no denying his talent and ultimately he has lifted the Warriors to new heights and a new level of dominance.

However, much like LeBron’s second stint in Cleveland, Durant has signed contracts with flexibility to opt out and reevaluate his options on July 1st. Nobody expected Durant to change locations after these previous two seasons after back to back championships and Finals MVP awards, but this offseason KD will be strongly tempted to join forces with a different franchise.

Could he go to New York? LA? DC? What about a reunion with OKC? While these destinations are all rumors, these are all plausible places that KD could land in 2019 or 2020.

KD is set to earn a salary of $30M for the 2018-2019 season and if he chooses to opt in, Durant will earn $31.5M for the 2019-2020 season.

Before this recent summer, we were under the assumption that KD would stay in the Bay until the wheels fall off but all of that changed when LeBron James decided to join the Lakers and Paul George decided to stay in OKC, thus leaving room for another max player. With those moves, NBA consumers have pondered the idea of KD joining forces with LeBron in LA to create a new superteam and ultimately solidify a strong condensing presence back in Laker Land.

This is not a stretch of the imagination and is a strong possibility with the trend that the NBA is moving to. Even if Durant does not want to go that route, he could try to orchestrate a team around himself and other future free agents such as Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Karl Anthony-Towns, or even Kawhi Leonard. If any of this were to happen, Golden State would take a big hit and this move would be the first domino to fall in the decline of their dynasty.

Reason #2: Expiring Contracts

The only player of the Warriors’ core that is currently signed past 2020 is Stephen Curry who recently signed the Super-Max extension. This means there is a chance that the Warriors can lose Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala in the next two summers. Given that the Warriors are a top heavy team, this would be a tremendous blow.

Outside of previously mentioned Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson seems to be the next Warrior in line that strikes fear in some that could be on the move. Klay is big for the Warriors even though he often goes under the radar. Thompson is able to generate offense efficiently without pounding the ball to floor and is able to cover for Curry’s lackluster on-ball defense.  

Klay is set to roughly receive a $19M base salary this upcoming year, however, this is also his contract year. Thompson, who is now 28, is most likely going to receive his last high salary contract and it definitely raises a financial concern for the Golden State Warriors. Golden State has the NBA’s third highest team payroll at $144M which is about $20M over their cap.

For the NBA’s small market teams and the majority of the Association’s mid and large market teams, Klay Thompson can easily get a max deal. Nevertheless, the ball is in Klay’s court. He can decide to accept what the Warriors offer him (which I assume will be a deal with a base salary north of $20M, but less than the max) or take his talents elsewhere to get more money. I would not bank on him leaving just yet given Klay and his father's responses in interviews and reports but it is a possibility.

With addition to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, the Warriors have to decide what they want to do with their prolific “glue guys” in Andre Iguodala and former DPOY Draymond Green.

Andre Iguodala is the piece that is most likely on the move unless he takes a deep pay cut. Iguodala, who is currently 34 years of age, has shown signs us aging and his remaining $33M over the next two seasons inclines us to believe that he is overpaid. Iguodala is still benefits the team when he is on the floor but because of his financial situation, he will most likely be the first of the core to be moved via trade or best case scenario he will restructure his deal.

Draymond Green’s situation is also enticing. Green is very valuable in Steve Kerr’s defensive scheme. The Warriors rely heavily on switching and active help rotation for their defense and Draymond’s ability to guard virtually every position is almost unmatched. Green is set to get $36M over the next two seasons and you can expect that number to increase when it is time to negotiate a new deal. Although, Green is a high value piece that the Warriors heavily rely on, Green will be 30 at the end of his current deal and I can not imagine owner Joe Lacob, going deeper into the luxury tax to keep a limited offensive player. Draymond’s negotiations should be interesting and he could also be traded.

Overall, the Warriors would lose if not all, some of these players in the next two seasons. The rate in which their dynasty declines strongly depends on who leaves and when they leave.

Reason #3: Boston & Company

The final reason why the current reign of the Warriors will end over the next two season is due to the increase in quality of other superteams. Boston seems to be the most obvious superteam of the future with their deep roster. With a team currently consisting of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart and others, they appear to be the strongest contender to stop the Warriors’ dominance. Boston will take the Warriors to six or seven games in the 2019 NBA Finals and it is not a far fetched idea that they could possibly steal the 2019 championship from the favorited Warriors. Boston is going to be that good! Even with the possibility of Irving leaving next summer, this team is still deep and will cause headaches in the East for years to come.

With addition to Boston, Philadelphia has a strong young core that will contend in the years to come and teams like the Rockets, Thunder and any LeBron led team are not going out without a fight. After last year’s championship, members of the Warriors came out and let us know that last year was a tough internal year and I predict that fatigue and complacency will sit in and we will see a lower margin of dominance between the Warriors and other contending teams.

In light of these reasons, the Golden State Warriors will see their dynasty drift before their eyes. Of course it is not a knock against what they did to be in the position that they are in now but we all know dynasties have to eventually come to an end but it will make for a great 30 for 30 in twenty years.